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Adrian Hamilton: The Right Reverend Mervyn King

Posted by Eagle Eye
  • Wednesday, 21 October 2009 at 12:02 pm

Oh dear. The Governor of the Bank of England does love his “moral hazard” sermon so. It was only two years ago that he was trumpeting about it as the reason not to intervene with Northern Rock and the banks at the beginning of this crisis. Financial institutions have to be let go as a lesson to themselves and others. Thank God he was over-ruled or the financial crisis would have been far worse.

It obviously still rankles with him because he’s fighting the battle all over again, only with the anger that they got away with it last time. Logically he’s right: the final discipline on risk taking is the fear of failure. Substitute that fear with the knowledge that the government will always bail you out and anything goes. In reality it’s not as grim as that. No company wants to bring about its own collapse even if the government will step in, particularly those who pay by bonuses. The problem of the whole casino operation behind the banking collapse was that the players all thought they were reducing risk with exotic instruments, not increasing them.

There is a real debate to be had. Indeed it must be had, about the size of banks, the nature of bonuses, the separation of function between deposit taking and dealing. And at the core of this has to be a discussion as to the rise of global financing and wholesale markets of the last twenty years. Does Britain want still to be at the centre of wholesale finance or revert to largely domestic banking, as one suspects is Mervyn King’s instinctive preference? It would be so much simpler for him if we reverted to the pre-Big Bang era.

But then that’s the trouble with the Governor, a domestic economist by training and nature. He didn’t understand what was happening when this crisis first blew up and, one suspects, he still doesn’t understand it now.

 

Comments

Understanding
[info]pilsden wrote:
Wednesday, 21 October 2009 at 12:36 pm (UTC)
Surely Northern Rock was a different case to RBS/HBOS and the government could just have easily let it fail it would hardly have caused systemic risk.The central bankers seem to have understood this crisis way better than politicians or newspaper journo's.After all King was warning about problems before the crisis, it was the head cheerleader Brown egged on by the press believing the spin.Now let's address the Glass-Steagall issue.Repeal was in 1998 and that appears to be the trigger for shadow banking .The question about does Britain want to be the centre of finance ,well I guess if the cost is so high each time no is the answer.The premise that the banks didn't want to have losses is fair but the instruments they used and embraced were of their own design and the same money for nothing ideals still abound so King is right to warn because the fools may not have learned. I
Finally I am pretty sure King understood what was going on and I suspect he knows a darned sight more than you do so I am not sure you have the right to criticise his point of view!+
Re: Understanding
[info]dnmurphy wrote:
Wednesday, 21 October 2009 at 03:39 pm (UTC)
"inally I am pretty sure King understood what was going on and I suspect he knows a darned sight more than you do so I am not sure you have the right to criticise his point of view!+"

Do you know this or is it just a hope?
Re: Understanding
[info]pilsden wrote:
Thursday, 22 October 2009 at 08:11 am (UTC)
Sorry to be so late in replying
I cannot be certain but form my view as a balance of judgement
I perceive the current accepted wisdom was that too large to fail translates as an international problem and thus requires international regulation.King's people recognised that the fault in HLi's was the one sided nature of the bet something a bookie would not let happen.The market imperfection allowed this to happen thus regulate to remove this.However we have now created a belief that bank failure is like utility failure(eg water)too bad to contemplate.That is giving the gambling bankers a blank guarantee against bad decisions .
Lunatic in my view.
I recommend this http://www.scribd.com/doc/21334172/Einhorn-Vic-2009-Speech
The other bit about the posting is that King is a domestic economist which seems to miss his time at Harvard and MIT and the relative importance of the LSE
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