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John Rentoul: Tories slump to, er, 12-point lead

Posted by Eagle Eye
  • Tuesday, 22 December 2009 at 01:47 pm

I saw Iain Dale had a taxi-driver moment when Ipsos-MORI reported a 17-point Conservative lead rather than the three-point gap that was rumoured:  

How can you take seriously a polling organisation which shows such huge monthly fluctuations? The last three months have shown the Tory lead go from 17% down to 6% and back up to 17%. Ridiculous.

Now some of the comrades are excited about today's ComRes poll in The Independent, which shows a nine-point lead, as opposed to the 17 points in its previous poll for The Independent on Sunday.

Those of you who do not know about sampling variation, look it up on Google. Those of you who do, look at Anthony Wells's UK Polling Report Polling Average. The Conservative lead is at 12 points, as opposed to, er, 12 points a week ago, and 14 points two months ago.  

Update: Anthony Wells emails to say that he had not updated his average at the time I wrote this, so the Tory lead is not 13 points as I wrote a few hours ago but an earth-shattering 12 points. The trouble is that even if the Daily Mail put "No Change in Underlying Poll Trend!" in two-inch-high type on the front page, no one would think it much of a story.


dnmurphy wrote:
Wednesday, 23 December 2009 at 12:02 am (UTC)
A cheerful bit of news. Not that I have nay liking for the Tories but at this moment in time would vote anyone who would help get rid of labour.

Unlike many, I will vote for the devil I don't know rather than the one I do.

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