Eagle Eye (indyeagleeye) wrote,
Eagle Eye

John Rentoul: The story of the campaign in polls

I'm no whizz with graphs on web pages, but you can get the gist from the bodge below. It's a chart of all polls reported by UK Polling Report since the start of the election campaign.

Conservatives are blue, Labour purple. Pale blue at the bottom is the Tory lead, which is not ideal as we need the Con-Lab gap - this shows Tory lead over the next party, which is the Lib Dems a lot of the time. 

The overall picture is clear, however. Lib Dem surge, since when, as Alan Johnson said this morning, they have had a "slow puncture". Cons steady around 35 per cent; Labour vote stiffening in past four days.

I think the current picture is more favourable to the Conservatives than this suggests. My poll of polls, which excludes Harris, Opinium, TNS and BPIX (either because they are not members of the British Polling Council or have not been polling long), puts the Tory lead over Labour at 7.5 percentage points. That suggests the Tories would be the largest party in a hung parliament. Unlike the graph, which suggests a lead of 5 points, which would mean Labour the largest party.

In addition, there is some evidence that the Tories may be doing slightly better in marginal seats. But opinion would have to move, or the polls would have to be out by perhaps two points, for David Cameron to win a majority.

Let us see what tonight brings in the final polls - the ones on which the polling companies will be judged.

Tags: 2010 election campaign, hung parliament, opinion polls

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