Eagle Eye (indyeagleeye) wrote,
Eagle Eye

John Rentoul: Who is going to win, then?

The last poll is in. Ipsos-MORI for the Evening Standard. My poll of polls (ComRes, Angus Reid, ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Populus and YouGov) now stands at:

Conservative   36
Labour              27.8
Lib Dem           26.7

That puts the Conservatives on 285 to 291 seats (BBC and Electoral Calculus), Labour on 257-243 and Lib Dems on 79-84. But last night's YouGov for The Sun found that the Conservatives were achieving a two-point higher swing in Labour-Conservative marginal seats. That would turn the national Con-Lab race into the equivalent of 38 to 25.8, and would result in David Cameron winning 320-331 seats, Labour 224-209, Lib Dems 77-80.

In other words, it is right on the point of Cameron's winning a majority, conventionally defined, with 326 seats.

At which point, Sinn Fein and John Boakes come into play. Assuming Sinn Fein win five seats and refuse to take them, that cuts the seats required for a majority. And the death of Boakes, the Ukip candidate for Thirsk and Malton, has deferred the contest there until 27 May. That means the number of seats required for a majority in the new House of Commons is 323. If the Tories win 322 they would have to wait until 27 May to be sure of winning votes in parliament.

I'm afraid I have no idea whether the BBC or the Electoral Calculus votes to seats converter is better, so I'll split the difference for my prediction: Conservatives 325 with one seat pending. David Cameron prime minister with a notional majority of two and a working majority of six, until 27 May when it will become seven.

Tags: 2010 election campaign, mug's game, opinion polls

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